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An improved version of the free HMA Trend indicator with new trading capabilities.
"HMA Trend is a trend indicator based on the Hull Moving Average (HMA) with two periods. HMA with a slow period identifies the trend, while HMA with a fast period determines the short-term movements and signals in the trend direction."
The HMA indicator changes color when its movement direction changes. This feature can be used to try to predict the change in the direction of the indicator, and, therefore, to predict the trend reversal.
The probability of a trend reversal is the probability of switching the direction of the slow HMA.
The indicator examines the behavior of the HMA indicator on the entire history, analyzes the number of switches and the duration of each direction of the indicator, estimates the probability of indicator reversal on the current bar, calculates the expected value and the standard deviation, and draws the statistical diagrams of the distribution series for subsequent analysis by the trader
Expected value (in the context of the indicator use) is the number of the HMA indicator bars in the same direction in history, where the HMA indicator had reversed on average.
Standard deviation (in the context of the indicator use) - the HMA indicator is most likely to reverse in the range of bars from ME-SD to ME+SD (where ME is the expected value, SD is the standard deviation).
In practice, impulse movements are noted to occur most often in the range of ME+SD bars, and the retracement movements take place within the range of ME-SD bars.
If you know that the slow HMA is probable to change the movement direction, do not open a deal, since the old trend has already been exhausted, and the probability of reversal or correction is high.
If you see a possibility of the fast HMA switching in the near future, open a deal at the end of the retracement movement and close a profitable deal at the end of the impulse movement.
The video shows a record of real-time trading, demonstrating the indicator features with explanations of all the actions performed